London, UK, 5 March 2021

SIGA Technologies (SIGA): Initiation - Protection against a future pandemic

SIGA Technologies is a commercial-stage company focusing on health security. Its lead program is oral TPOXX (tecovirimat), which was approved by the FDA in 2018 for the treatment of smallpox and is active against all orthopoxviruses. Importantly, in 2018 SIGA was awarded a 60-month contract (with options to extend to 2028) of up to $602m from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), the majority of which was for the procurement of the oral version of TPOXX.

We value SIGA at $968m or $12.61 per basic share using a risk-adjusted net present value (NPV) model. Almost half of our valuation comes from the US base business, with the rest mainly coming from the PEP and international opportunities. The company reported $117.9m in net cash at the end of December and is profitable. SIGA has a $50m stock repurchase program in place and bought $28.5m of stock by the end of Q420.  
 

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